Half Point Calculator

Why half points matter

Point spreads on key numbers like 3 and 7 in football carry extra value because games land on those margins more often than random. Buying from -3.5 to -3 adds wins when the favorite wins by exactly three. Selling moves the other direction for better odds but more risk.

Sportsbooks charge for half-point moves by shifting juice — often from -110 to -125 or worse. Whether the trade is worth it depends on how often the integer pushes and how much odds worsen.

How this calculator works

Enter current American odds, new odds after the half-point move, and your estimate of push probability on the key number. The tool compares expected value before and after the move using implied win rate from the opening price plus your push adjustment.

Push rates are sport- and number-specific. NFL field-goal margins around 3 points push roughly 9–10% of the time historically; NBA margins cluster differently. Use your own research or the reference table as a starting point, not a guarantee.

Buy vs sell half points

Buying makes covering easier — useful when crossing a high-push integer. Selling accepts harder cover requirements in exchange for better payout odds. Neither is automatically +EV; run the numbers for each specific move.

Pair this tool with the Point Spread Calculator for payout context and the Hold Calculator to see juice on each side of the market.

FAQ

Does this calculator use live odds?

No. You enter your own American odds and push probability. Fantasy Forge does not provide live odds feeds or automated line shopping.

What push rate should I use for NFL -3?

Historical NFL margins of exactly 3 occur roughly 9–10% of the time, but rates vary by team pace and matchup. Adjust based on your analysis.

Is buying half points always worth it on 3?

Not always. If the book charges -130 or more to move off -3.5, the juice cost may exceed push value. Use the EV comparison to decide case by case.