Methodology

Signals we may use

Odds and market lean: how prices or consensus may tilt relative to a line.

Projections and cushions: how a projection sits versus the prop line (sometimes called prop cushion).

Hit rates: historical or platform-provided hit information when available.

Matchup context: opponent and game environment notes when present.

Scale factors and model adjustments: internal weighting used to blend signals responsibly.

Your inputs: confidence ratings, stars, bans, and manual edits always matter.

What methodology is not

We do not publish secret formulas here, and we do not claim that any score guarantees a win.

Missing data, stale lines, and user error can all change rankings. Always verify lines on your platform before submitting.

Responsible interpretation

Treat rankings and simulations as research organization tools. They help compare options; they do not eliminate variance in sports.